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1.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 34: 100755, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38737773

ABSTRACT

Background: The emergence of COVID-19 variants with immune scape and the waning of primary vaccine schemes effectiveness have prompted many countries to indicate first and second booster COVID-19 vaccine doses to prevent severe COVID-19. However, current available evidence on second booster dose effectiveness are mostly limited to high-income countries, older adults, and mRNA-based vaccination schemes scenarios. We aimed to investigate the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of the fourth dose compared to three doses for severe COVID-19 outcomes in Brazil; and compare the rVE of a fourth dose with an mRNA vaccine compared to adenovirus-based product in the same settings. Methods: We performed a target emulated trial using a population-based cohort of individuals aged 40 years or older who have received a homologous primary scheme of CoronaVac, ChAdOx1, or BNT162b2, and any third dose product and were eligible for the fourth dose in Brazil. The primary outcome was COVID-19 associated hospitalization or death. We built Cohort A matching individuals vaccinated with a fourth dose to individuals who received three doses to estimate the rVE of the fourth dose. We built Cohort B, a subset of Cohort A, matching mRNA-based (mRNA) to adenovirus-based fourth dose vaccinated individuals to compare their relative hazards for severe COVID-19. Findings: 46,693,484 individuals were included in Cohort A and 6,763,016 in Cohort B. 45% of them were aged between 40 and 60 years old, and 48% between 60 and 79 years old. In Cohort A, the most common previous series was a ChAdOx1 two-dose followed by BNT162b2 (44%), and a CoronaVac two-dose followed by a BNT162b2 (36%). Among those fourth dose vaccinated, 36.9% received ChAdOx1, 32.7% Ad26.COV2.S, 25.8% BNT162b2, and 4.7% CoronaVac. In Cohort B, among those who received an adenovirus fourth dose, 53.7% received ChAdOx1 and 46.3% received Ad26.COV2.S. The estimated rVE for the primary outcome of four doses compared to three doses was 44.1% (95% CI 42.3-46.0), with some waning during follow-up (rVE 7-60 days 46.8% [95% CI 44.4-49.1], rVE after 120 days 33.8% [95% CI 18.0-46.6]). Among fourth dose vaccinated individuals, mRNA-based vaccinated individuals had lower hazards for hospitalization or death compared to adenovirus-vaccinated individuals (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87). After 120 days, no difference in hazards between groups was observed (HR 1.35, 95% CI 0.93-1.97). Similar findings were observed for hospitalization and death separately, except no evidence for differences between fourth dose brands for death in Cohort B. Interpretation: In a heterogeneous scenario of primary and first booster vaccination combinations, a fourth dose provided meaningful and durable protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to adenovirus-based booster, a fourth dose wild-type mRNA vaccine was associated with immediate lower hazards of hospitalization or death unsustained after 120 days. Funding: None.

2.
Sci Transl Med ; 16(744): eadk3259, 2024 Apr 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38657027

ABSTRACT

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection even in previously exposed individuals. In addition, for some pathogens, such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains unclear whether the antigenic distances between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalizations across years. Here, we develop a framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterization of viruses with details on hospitalized cases from 21 years of dengue surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand, to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We found that the risk of hospitalization depended on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximized at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest that immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk and provide a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.


Subject(s)
Antigens, Viral , Dengue Virus , Dengue , Humans , Dengue/immunology , Dengue/epidemiology , Dengue/virology , Dengue Virus/immunology , Antigens, Viral/immunology , Thailand/epidemiology , Risk Factors , Hospitalization
3.
Cell Commun Signal ; 22(1): 221, 2024 Apr 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38594674

ABSTRACT

VEGFR2 (Vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2) is a central regulator of placental angiogenesis. The study of the VEGFR2 proteome of chorionic villi at term revealed its partners MDMX (Double minute 4 protein) and PICALM (Phosphatidylinositol-binding clathrin assembly protein). Subsequently, the oxytocin receptor (OT-R) and vasopressin V1aR receptor were detected in MDMX and PICALM immunoprecipitations. Immunogold electron microscopy showed VEGFR2 on endothelial cell (EC) nuclei, mitochondria, and Hofbauer cells (HC), tissue-resident macrophages of the placenta. MDMX, PICALM, and V1aR were located on EC plasma membranes, nuclei, and HC nuclei. Unexpectedly, PICALM and OT-R were detected on EC projections into the fetal lumen and OT-R on 20-150 nm clusters therein, prompting the hypothesis that placental exosomes transport OT-R to the fetus and across the blood-brain barrier. Insights on gestational complications were gained by univariable and multivariable regression analyses associating preeclampsia with lower MDMX protein levels in membrane extracts of chorionic villi, and lower MDMX, PICALM, OT-R, and V1aR with spontaneous vaginal deliveries compared to cesarean deliveries before the onset of labor. We found select associations between higher MDMX, PICALM, OT-R protein levels and either gravidity, diabetes, BMI, maternal age, or neonatal weight, and correlations only between PICALM-OT-R (p < 2.7 × 10-8), PICALM-V1aR (p < 0.006), and OT-R-V1aR (p < 0.001). These results offer for exploration new partnerships in metabolic networks, tissue-resident immunity, and labor, notably for HC that predominantly express MDMX.


Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus , Pre-Eclampsia , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Gravidity , Oxytocin/metabolism , Placenta/metabolism , Pre-Eclampsia/metabolism , Proteomics , Receptors, Oxytocin/metabolism , Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A/metabolism , Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor-2/metabolism
4.
medRxiv ; 2024 Apr 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38562868

ABSTRACT

Humans experience many influenza infections over their lives, resulting in complex and varied immunological histories. Although experimental and quantitative analyses have improved our understanding of the immunological processes defining an individual's antibody repertoire, how these within-host processes are linked to population-level influenza epidemiology remains unclear. Here, we used a multi-level mathematical model to jointly infer antibody dynamics and individual-level lifetime influenza A/H3N2 infection histories for 1,130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, using 67,683 haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay measurements against 20 A/H3N2 strains from repeat serum samples collected between 2009 and 2015. These estimated infection histories allowed us to reconstruct historical seasonal influenza patterns and to investigate how influenza incidence varies over time, space and age in this population. We estimated median annual influenza infection rates to be approximately 18% from 1968 to 2015, but with substantial variation between years. 88% of individuals were estimated to have been infected at least once during the study period (2009-2015), and 20% were estimated to have three or more infections in that time. We inferred decreasing infection rates with increasing age, and found that annual attack rates were highly correlated across all locations, regardless of their distance, suggesting that age has a stronger impact than fine-scale spatial effects in determining an individual's antibody profile. Finally, we reconstructed each individual's expected antibody profile over their lifetime and inferred an age-stratified relationship between probability of infection and HI titre. Our analyses show how multi-strain serological panels provide rich information on long term, epidemiological trends, within-host processes and immunity when analyzed using appropriate inference methods, and adds to our understanding of the life course epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2.

5.
Clin Infect Dis ; 78(Supplement_2): S83-S92, 2024 Apr 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38662692

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Neglected Diseases , Tropical Medicine , Neglected Diseases/prevention & control , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Models, Theoretical , World Health Organization , SARS-CoV-2 , Decision Making , Global Health
6.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 11(3): ofae065, 2024 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38516384

ABSTRACT

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has spread globally. However, the contribution of community versus household transmission to the overall risk of infection remains unclear. Methods: Between November 2021 and March 2022, we conducted an active case-finding study in an urban informal settlement with biweekly visits across 1174 households with 3364 residents. Individuals displaying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related symptoms were identified, interviewed along with household contacts, and defined as index and secondary cases based on reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and symptom onset. Results: In 61 households, we detected a total of 94 RT-PCR-positive cases. Of 69 sequenced samples, 67 cases (97.1%) were attributed to the Omicron BA.1* variant. Among 35 of their households, the secondary attack rate was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.0%-63.0%). Women (relative risk [RR], 1.6 [95% CI, .9-2.7]), older individuals (median difference, 15 [95% CI, 2-21] years), and those reporting symptoms (RR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.0-3.0]) had a significantly increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 secondary infection. Genomic analysis revealed substantial acquisition of viruses from the community even among households with other SARS-CoV-2 infections. After excluding community acquisition, we estimated a household secondary attack rate of 24.2% (95% CI, 11.9%-40.9%). Conclusions: These findings underscore the ongoing risk of community acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 among households with current infections. The observed high attack rate necessitates swift booster vaccination, rapid testing availability, and therapeutic options to mitigate the severe outcomes of COVID-19.

8.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0299143, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38547145

ABSTRACT

Epidemic data are often difficult to interpret due to inconsistent detection and reporting. As these data are critically relied upon to inform policy and epidemic projections, understanding reporting trends is similarly important. Early reporting of the COVID-19 pandemic in particular is complicated, due to changing diagnostic and testing protocols. An internal audit by the State of Florida, USA found numerous specific examples of irregularities in COVID-19 case and death reports. Using case, hospitalization, and death data from the the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida, we present approaches that can be used to identify the timing, direction, and magnitude of some reporting changes. Specifically, by establishing a baseline of detection probabilities from the first (spring) wave, we show that transmission trends among all age groups were similar, with the exception of the second summer wave, when younger people became infected earlier than seniors, by approximately 2 weeks. We also found a substantial drop in case-fatality risk (CFR) among all age groups over the three waves during the first year of the pandemic, with the most drastic changes seen in the 0 to 39 age group. The CFR trends provide useful insights into infection detection that would not be possible by relying on the number of tests alone. During the third wave, for which we have reliable hospitalization data, the CFR was remarkably stable across all age groups. In contrast, the hospitalization-to-case ratio varied inversely with cases while the death-to-hospitalization ratio varied proportionally. Although specific trends are likely to vary between locales, the approaches we present here offer a generic way to understand the substantial changes that occurred in the relationships among the key epidemic indicators.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Infant, Newborn , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Florida/epidemiology , Pandemics , Hospitalization
9.
Sci Adv ; 10(7): eadj9786, 2024 Feb 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38363842

ABSTRACT

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross-validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric significantly improved model performance.


Subject(s)
Dengue Virus , Dengue , Humans , Dengue/diagnosis , Dengue/epidemiology , Models, Statistical , Prognosis , Climate , Fever
10.
Int J Infect Dis ; 139: 159-167, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38070701

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1* variant rapidly spread globally in late 2022, posing a challenge due to its increased immune evasion. METHODS: We conducted a prevalence survey in Brazil from November 16 to December 22, 2022, as part of a cohort study. We conducted interviews and collected nasal samples for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing and whole-genome sequencing. Cumulative incidence was estimated using RT-PCR positivity, cycle threshold values, and external data on the dynamics of RT-PCR positivity following infection. RESULTS: Among 535 participants, 54% had documented SARS-CoV-2 exposure before this outbreak and 74% had received COVID-19 vaccination. In this study, 14.8% tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with BQ.1* identified in 90.7% of cases. Using case data and cycle threshold values, cumulative incidence was estimated at 56% (95% confidence interval, 36-88%). Of the 79 positive participants, 48.1% had a symptomatic illness, with a lower proportion fulfilling the World Health Organization COVID-19 case definition compared to prior Omicron waves. No participants required medical attention. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high population-level hybrid immunity, the BQ.1* variant attacked 56% of our population. Lower disease severity was associated with BQ.1* compared to prior Omicron variants. Hybrid immunity may provide protection against future SARS-CoV-2 variants but in this case was not able to prevent widespread transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Humans , Cohort Studies , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Adaptive Immunity
11.
Nat Microbiol ; 9(1): 274-283, 2024 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38110699

ABSTRACT

Although it is known that household infections drive the transmission of dengue virus (DENV), it is unclear how household composition and the immune status of inhabitants affect the individual risk of infection. Most population-based studies to date have focused on paediatric cohorts because more severe forms of dengue mainly occur in children, and the role of adults in dengue transmission is understudied. Here we analysed data from a multigenerational cohort study of 470 households, comprising 2,860 individuals, in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, to evaluate risk factors for DENV infection. Using a gradient-boosted regression model trained on annual haemagglutination inhibition antibody titre inputs, we identified 1,049 infections, 90% of which were subclinical. By analysing imputed infections, we found that individual antibody titres, household composition and antibody titres of other members in the same household affect an individual's risk of DENV infection. Those individuals living in households with high average antibody titres, or households with more adults, had a reduced risk of infection. We propose that herd immunity to dengue acts at the household level and may provide insight into the drivers of the recent change in the shifting age distribution of dengue cases in Thailand.


Subject(s)
Dengue Virus , Dengue , Adult , Humans , Child , Prospective Studies , Cohort Studies , Longitudinal Studies , Thailand/epidemiology
12.
Res Sq ; 2023 Nov 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38014322

ABSTRACT

Background: Timely and precise detection of emerging infections is crucial for effective outbreak management and disease control. Human mobility significantly influences infection risks and transmission dynamics, and spatial sampling is a valuable tool for pinpointing potential infections in specific areas. This study explored spatial sampling methods, informed by various mobility patterns, to optimize the allocation of testing resources for detecting emerging infections. Methods: Mobility patterns, derived from clustering point-of-interest data and travel data, were integrated into four spatial sampling approaches to detect emerging infections at the community level. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed mobility-based spatial sampling, we conducted analyses using actual and simulated outbreaks under different scenarios of transmissibility, intervention timing, and population density in cities. Results: By leveraging inter-community movement data and initial case locations, the proposed case flow intensity (CFI) and case transmission intensity (CTI)-informed sampling approaches could considerably reduce the number of tests required for both actual and simulated outbreaks. Nonetheless, the prompt use of CFI and CTI within communities is imperative for effective detection, particularly for highly contagious infections in densely populated areas. Conclusions: The mobility-based spatial sampling approach can substantially improve the efficiency of community-level testing for detecting emerging infections. It achieves this by reducing the number of individuals screened while maintaining a high accuracy rate of infection identification. It represents a cost-effective solution to optimize the deployment of testing resources, when necessary, to contain emerging infectious diseases in diverse settings.

13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(41): e2308221120, 2023 10 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37774093

ABSTRACT

Infants less than 1 y of age experience high rates of dengue disease in dengue virus (DENV) endemic countries. This burden is commonly attributed to antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), whereby concentrations of maternally derived DENV antibodies become subneutralizing, and infection-enhancing. Understanding antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk represents a significant challenge due to the dynamic nature of antibodies and their imperfect measurement processes. Further, key uncertainties exist regarding the impact of long-term shifts in birth rates, population-level infection risks, and maternal ages on the DENV immune landscape of newborns and their subsequent risks of severe dengue disease in infancy. Here, we analyze DENV antibody data from two infant cohorts (N = 142 infants with 605 blood draws) and 40 y of infant dengue hospitalization data from Thailand. We use mathematical models to reconstruct maternally derived antibody dynamics, accounting for discretized measurement processes and limits of assay detection. We then explore possible antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk and their ability to reconstruct the observed age distribution of hospitalized infant dengue cases. We find that ADE mechanisms are best able to reconstruct the observed data. Finally, we describe how the shifting epidemiology of dengue in Thailand, combined with declining birth rates, have decreased the absolute risk of infant dengue disease by 88% over a 40-y period while having minimal impact on the mean age of infant hospitalized dengue disease.


Subject(s)
Dengue Virus , Dengue , Severe Dengue , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Antibodies, Viral , Antibodies, Neutralizing , Antibody-Dependent Enhancement
14.
medRxiv ; 2023 Aug 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37609267

ABSTRACT

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric, significantly improved model performance.

15.
Res Sq ; 2023 Aug 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37577717

ABSTRACT

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection. In addition, for some pathogens such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease, through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains a mystery whether the antigenic distance between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalisations across years. Here we develop an inferential framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterisation of viruses, and hospitalised cases from 21 years of surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We find that the risk of hospitalisation depends on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximised at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk, and provides a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

16.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 5055, 2023 08 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37598213

ABSTRACT

Whether SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccines confer exposure-dependent ("leaky") protection against infection remains unknown. We examined the effect of prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity on infection risk among residents of Connecticut correctional facilities during periods of predominant Omicron and Delta transmission. Residents with cell, cellblock, and no documented exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infected residents were matched by facility and date. During the Omicron period, prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity reduced the infection risk of residents without a documented exposure (HR: 0.36 [0.25-0.54]; 0.57 [0.42-0.78]; 0.24 [0.15-0.39]; respectively) and with cellblock exposures (0.61 [0.49-0.75]; 0.69 [0.58-0.83]; 0.41 [0.31-0.55]; respectively) but not with cell exposures (0.89 [0.58-1.35]; 0.96 [0.64-1.46]; 0.80 [0.46-1.39]; respectively). Associations were similar during the Delta period and when analyses were restricted to tested residents. Although associations may not have been thoroughly adjusted due to dataset limitations, the findings suggest that prior infection and vaccination may be leaky, highlighting the potential benefits of pairing vaccination with non-pharmaceutical interventions in crowded settings.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Prisoners , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination
17.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 5270, 2023 08 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37644012

ABSTRACT

Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing measures (38% reduction, 95% prediction interval 31-45%), face masks (30%, 17-42%) and close contact tracing (28%, 24-31%) were most effective. Contact tracing was crucial in containing outbreaks during the initial phases, while social distancing measures became increasingly prominent as the spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility and a shorter latent period posed more challenges for these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the effects of public-health measures for zeroing out emerging contagions in different contexts.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Public Health , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Pandemics/prevention & control
18.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(9): 1864-1867, 2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37487168

ABSTRACT

A Vibrio cholerae O1 outbreak emerged in Haiti in October 2022 after years of cholera absence. In samples from a 2021 serosurvey, we found lower circulating antibodies against V. cholerae lipopolysaccharide in children <5 years of age and no vibriocidal antibodies, suggesting high susceptibility to cholera, especially among young children.


Subject(s)
Cholera , Vibrio cholerae O1 , Child , Humans , Child, Preschool , Cholera/epidemiology , Haiti/epidemiology , Antibodies, Bacterial , Vibrio cholerae O1/genetics , Disease Outbreaks
19.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(7): e0002151, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37478056

ABSTRACT

Human mobility patterns changed greatly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite many analyses investigating general mobility trends, there has been less work characterising changes in mobility on a fine spatial scale and developing frameworks to model these changes. We analyse zip code-level within-city mobility data from 26 US cities between February 2 -August 31, 2020. We use Bayesian models to characterise the initial decrease in mobility and mobility patterns between June-August at this fine spatial scale. There were similar temporal trends across cities but large variations in the magnitude of mobility reductions. Long-distance routes and higher-income subscribers, but not age, were associated with greater mobility reductions. At the city level, mobility rates around early April, when mobility was lowest, and over summer showed little association with non-pharmaceutical interventions or case rates. Changes in mobility patterns lasted until the end of the study period, despite overall numbers of trips recovering to near baseline levels in many cities.

20.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 23(8): 965-973, 2023 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37127047

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Current supply shortages constrain yellow fever vaccination activities, particularly outbreak response. Although fractional doses of all WHO-prequalified yellow fever vaccines have been shown to be safe and immunogenic in a randomised controlled trial in adults, they have not been evaluated in a randomised controlled trial in young children (9-59 months old). We aimed to assess the immunogenicity and safety of fractional doses compared with standard doses of the WHO-prequalified 17D-213 vaccine in young children. METHODS: This substudy of the YEFE phase 4 study was conducted at the Epicentre Mbarara Research Centre (Mbarara, Uganda). Eligible children were aged 9-59 months without contraindications for vaccination, without history of previous yellow fever vaccination or infection and not requiring yellow fever vaccination for travelling. Participants were randomly assigned, using block randomisation, 1:1 to standard or fractional (one-fifth) dose of yellow fever vaccine. Investigators, participants, and laboratory personnel were blinded to group allocation. Participants were followed for immunogenicity and safety at 10 days, 28 days, and 1 year after vaccination. The primary outcome was non-inferiority in seroconversion (-10 percentage point margin) 28 days after vaccination measured by 50% plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT50) in the per-protocol population. Safety and seroconversion at 10 days and 12-16 months after vaccination (given COVID-19 resctrictions) were secondary outcomes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02991495. FINDINGS: Between Feb 20, 2019, and Sept 9, 2019, 433 children were assessed, and 420 were randomly assigned to fractional dose (n=210) and to standard dose (n=210) 17D-213 vaccination. 28 days after vaccination, 202 (97%, 95% CI 95-99) of 207 participants in the fractional dose group and 191 (100%, 98-100) of 191 in the standard dose group seroconverted. The absolute difference in seroconversion between the study groups in the per-protocol population was -2 percentage points (95% CI -5 to 1). 154 (73%) of 210 participants in the fractional dose group and 168 (80%) of 210 in the standard dose group reported at least one adverse event 28 days after vaccination. At 10 days follow-up, seroconversion was lower in the fractional dose group than in the standard dose group. The most common adverse events were upper respiratory tract infections (n=221 [53%]), diarrhoea (n=68 [16%]), rhinorrhoea (n=49 [12%]), and conjunctivitis (n=28 [7%]). No difference was observed in incidence of adverse events and serious adverse events between study groups. CONCLUSIONS: Fractional doses of the 17D-213 vaccine were non-inferior to standard doses in inducing seroconversion 28 days after vaccination in children aged 9-59 months when assessed with PRNT50, but we found fewer children seroconverted at 10 days. The results support consideration of the use of fractional dose of yellow fever vaccines in WHO recommendations for outbreak response in the event of a yellow fever vaccine shortage to include children. FUNDING: Médecins Sans Frontières Foundation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Yellow Fever Vaccine , Yellow Fever , Child, Preschool , Humans , Infant , Antibodies, Viral , Double-Blind Method , Immunogenicity, Vaccine , Uganda , Vaccination/methods , Yellow Fever/prevention & control , Yellow Fever Vaccine/adverse effects
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